← Dashboard
Backtest
The disclosure follower
Buy a fixed dollar amount of every position each marquee fund discloses (new opens and adds), at the filing-date price. Sell the moment the fund's next filing no longer shows it. Drag the slider to size each signal differently and see how the dollar figures rescale.
124,176 buy signals across 25 funds · 50,816 closed · 73,360 marked-to-market · avg hold 328 days
Position size per signal
$10,000
$500$250K
Slide to size every individual buy signal differently. Percentages (returns, alpha %, win rate) don't change — only the dollar figures rescale, since each signal's P&L is linear in position size.
Slippage assumption
Gross (no slippage)
Headline figures assume frictionless execution at the filing-date price.
Headline
Total invested
$1.24B
124,176 signals × $10k
Follower ending value
$1.46B
+17.2% on capital
SPY ending value
$1.45B
+17.1% on same dollars
Alpha vs SPY
+$1.53M
+0.1% of invested capital
Beat SPY (win rate)
41%
signals with positive alpha
Avg signal return
+17.2%
Median signal return
+3.0%
Avg hold
328d
3.6 quarters
Realized P&L curve
Cumulative profit · follower vs SPYFollower P&L (realized)SPY P&L over the same windows
Per-fund contribution
| Fund | Signals | Invested | Follower | SPY | Alpha | Return | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two Sigma Investments | 12,536 | $125.36M | $148.36M | $144.29M | +$4.06M | +18.3% | 42% |
| Millennium Management | 14,391 | $143.91M | $171.76M | $168.87M | +$2.89M | +19.4% | 39% |
| Citadel Advisors | 19,120 | $191.2M | $222.92M | $220.29M | +$2.63M | +16.6% | 40% |
| Renaissance Technologies | 14,032 | $140.32M | $164.82M | $162.33M | +$2.49M | +17.5% | 40% |
| Coatue Management | 1,788 | $17.88M | $23.06M | $21.44M | +$1.62M | +29.0% | 41% |
| D.E. Shaw | 11,132 | $111.32M | $130.5M | $129.15M | +$1.34M | +17.2% | 41% |
| Appaloosa | 534 | $5.34M | $8.15M | $7.28M | +$865.32K | +52.6% | 47% |
| Point72 Asset Management | 6,829 | $68.29M | $75.33M | $74.59M | +$736.12K | +10.3% | 43% |
| Duquesne Family Office | 1,119 | $11.19M | $13.19M | $12.53M | +$664.53K | +17.9% | 47% |
| Maverick Capital | 6,912 | $69.12M | $78.82M | $78.2M | +$624.8K | +14.0% | 45% |
| Lone Pine Capital | 725 | $7.25M | $9.45M | $8.83M | +$617.37K | +30.3% | 45% |
| Viking Global Investors | 1,612 | $16.12M | $19.43M | $19.05M | +$388.02K | +20.6% | 47% |
| Scion Asset Management | 172 | $1.72M | $2.14M | $1.87M | +$267.51K | +24.2% | 52% |
| Pershing Square | 77 | $770K | $1.27M | $1.21M | +$61.56K | +64.5% | 55% |
| Greenlight Capital | 264 | $2.64M | $3.47M | $3.46M | +$12.03K | +31.4% | 41% |
| JANA Partners | 268 | $2.68M | $3.03M | $3.11M | −$74.34K | +13.2% | 47% |
| Elliott Management | 125 | $1.25M | $1.23M | $1.35M | −$116.56K | -1.6% | 42% |
| Tiger Global | 685 | $6.85M | $9.68M | $9.83M | −$151.46K | +41.3% | 37% |
| Glenview Capital | 873 | $8.73M | $11.81M | $11.98M | −$169.15K | +35.3% | 47% |
| Soros Fund Management | 723 | $7.23M | $7.68M | $7.88M | −$192.22K | +6.3% | 41% |
| Third Point | 696 | $6.96M | $7.87M | $8.16M | −$286.82K | +13.1% | 39% |
| D1 Capital Partners | 574 | $5.74M | $6.2M | $6.6M | −$397.1K | +8.1% | 44% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 298 | $2.98M | $5.29M | $5.75M | −$456.25K | +77.5% | 32% |
| AQR Capital Management | 15,100 | $151M | $176.32M | $176.79M | −$470.27K | +16.8% | 40% |
| Bridgewater Associates | 13,591 | $135.91M | $153.81M | $169.24M | −$15.43M | +13.2% | 39% |
Biggest alpha winners
- RGTI · RIGETTI COMPUTING INCMillennium Management · Q3 2024 → Q3 2025+$201.78K+2038% vs SPY +20%
- UAMY · UNITED STATES ANTIMONY CORPMillennium Management · Q3 2024 → Q1 2026+$178K+1808% vs SPY +28%
- PLTR · PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INCBridgewater Associates · Q4 2022 → Q2 2025+$154.97K+1604% vs SPY +54%
- PLTR · PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INCBridgewater Associates · Q2 2022 → Q2 2025+$140.81K+1461% vs SPY +53%
- GME · GAMESTOP CORP NEWMaverick Capital · Q4 2020 → Q2 2021+$138.2K+1398% vs SPY +15%
- SHOP · SHOPIFY INCTiger Global · Q3 2015 → Q3 2023+$137.25K+1520% vs SPY +147%
- UAMY · UNITED STATES ANTIMONY CORPMillennium Management · Q4 2024 → Q1 2026+$127.74K+1294% vs SPY +17%
- CC · CHEMOURS COGreenlight Capital · Q1 2016 → Q2 2018+$126.72K+1317% vs SPY +49%
- BILI · BILIBILI INCTiger Global · Q3 2018 → Q1 2021+$125.13K+1296% vs SPY +45%
- QUBT · QUANTUM COMPUTING INCCitadel Advisors · Q3 2024 → Q1 2025+$123.46K+1247% vs SPY +13%
Biggest alpha losses
- BKD · BROOKDALE SR LIVING INCGlenview Capital · Q3 2014 → Q3 2025−$37.63K-78% vs SPY +299%
- BKD · BROOKDALE SR LIVING INCGlenview Capital · Q4 2014 → Q3 2025−$35.82K-78% vs SPY +280%
- BKD · BROOKDALE SR LIVING INCGlenview Capital · Q1 2015 → Q3 2025−$34.75K-80% vs SPY +268%
- CHTR · CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC NBerkshire Hathaway · Q4 2016 → Q2 2026−$34.43K-47% vs SPY +298%
- BKD · BROOKDALE SR LIVING INCGlenview Capital · Q2 2015 → Q3 2025−$34.22K-80% vs SPY +262%
- CHTR · CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC NBerkshire Hathaway · Q3 2016 → Q2 2026−$34.12K-46% vs SPY +295%
- BKD · BROOKDALE SR LIVING INCGlenview Capital · Q1 2016 → Q3 2025−$33.9K-40% vs SPY +299%
- BKD · BROOKDALE SR LIVING INCGlenview Capital · Q4 2015 → Q3 2025−$33.87K-69% vs SPY +270%
- EEM · ISHARES TRBridgewater Associates · Q3 2013 → Q1 2025−$29.89K+42% vs SPY +341%
- EEM · ISHARESBridgewater Associates · Q1 2014 → Q1 2025−$26.28K+44% vs SPY +306%
Caveats
- Survivorship bias. The nine marquee funds are well-known and still operating; this sample excludes funds that blew up. Aggregate alpha is biased upward versus a non-curated universe; comparisons within the sample are still informative.
- Filing-date pricing is the theoretical earliest moment a follower could have acted. Real-world execution is T+1 to T+5; the disclosure-day alpha decays fast. (T+N sensitivity table is on the roadmap.)
- Heavy funds (Renaissance Technologies, Citadel Advisors, Soros Fund Management, Two Sigma Investments, D.E. Shaw, AQR Capital Management, Millennium Management, Point72 Asset Management) use 8-quarter snapshots; the rest use full history. The aggregate return reflects this uneven sampling.
- All buys priced at the 13F filing date (45 days after period-end — the earliest a follower could act). Exits priced at the next filing's date.
- Prices are Yahoo's adjusted close— adjusted for both splits and dividends — so total return (price appreciation + reinvested dividends) is captured. SPY's ~2%/yr dividends are properly counted in the benchmark.
- No transaction costs, taxes, or slippage modeled. Yahoo's adjusted-close has minor quirks for very old (10+ yr) historical data; per-signal returns within a typical hold window are accurate but year-over-decade returns can have ±5–10% noise.
- Open positions are marked-to-market at the most recent close. Their sell-side P&L is unrealized.
- Signals with unmapped tickers (small/foreign/delisted) are excluded. Options and short positions are excluded throughout.