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← Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.
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Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.

What you'd have made by mirroring Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s public 13F filings, starting with $10,000 on Aug 14, 2013 and rebalancing at every disclosure through May 31, 2026.

52 filings replayed32 of 44 CUSIPs mapped to tickers35 closed trades11 still open
Benchmark
SPYIWMQQQEFAAGG
Russell 2000 — US small-cap

Equity curve

$10,000 mirrored · vs IWM
$10k$20k$30k$40k$50k$60k2015201720192021202320252026
Mirror portfolio$10k in IWM
Mirror — final
$60.56K
IWM — final
$32.81K
Mirror return
+505.6%
Excess return vs IWM
+277.4%

Risk profile

Weekly mirror returns vs IWM · rf ≈ 4%
Sharpe
0.51
Max drawdown
-47.2%
Beta vs IWM
0.56
Information ratio
0.26
CAGR
+15.1%
Volatility (ann.)
21.8%
Sortino
0.49
α (Jensen, ann.)
+7.9%
Tracking error
20.7%
Upside capture
62%
Downside capture
42%
Window
12.8y

Drawdown

Underwater curve — distance below running peak
-40%-30%-20%-10%0%-47.2%2015201720192021202320252026

Largest drawdown: -47.2% from 2020-02-12 to 2020-03-18 · recovered 2020-09-02.

Style decomposition

R² 32% · 668 weekly obs

Multivariate regression of weekly mirror excess return on five style factors built from the benchmark ETFs: SPY (market), IWM−SPY (size), QQQ−SPY (growth), EFA−SPY (international), AGG−SPY (bonds). The intercept is the “true alpha” after stripping these passive tilts. ✓ marks loadings whose |t-stat| ≥ 2 (≈ 95% confidence the loading is non-zero).

Market (β)
+1.32✓
Size tilt
+0.32✓
Growth tilt
+0.03
International tilt
+0.24✓
Bond tilt
+0.66✓
α (style-adjusted)
+9.0%
R²
32%
α t-stat
1.76
Observations
668

Rolling 1y alpha

Trailing 52w mirror return − IWM return
-40%-20%0%+20%+40%avg +6.0%now -22.2%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Whether the headline alpha was earned recently or decades ago. Bands above the zero line are quarters where the mirror beat IWM on a trailing-year basis; bands below are quarters where it lost ground. A flat positive line = steady outperformance; a curve that crosses often = regime-dependent strategy.

Realized P&L · closed trades

Cumulative profit from positions opened and later sold
$0$2.0k$4.0k$6.0kHLT +$2.6kLOW +$1.4kCMG +$929APD +$7182015201720192021202320252026
Realized P&L
+$6.94K
Closed trades
35
Win rate
40%
Avg return / closed
+33.2%

Biggest closed trades

IssuerEntryExitHeldReturnP&L
HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC
HLT
Q1 2019Q2 202629Q+303%+$2.38B
LOWES COS INC
LOW
Q3 2018Q2 202423Q+167%+$1.23B
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
CMG
Q4 2016Q1 202638Q+357%+$838.59M
AIR PRODS & CHEMS INC
APD
Q3 2013Q3 201716Q+70%+$647.97M
STARBUCKS CORP
SBUX
Q1 2019Q2 20219Q+63%+$479.84M
NETFLIX INC
NFLX
Q2 2022Q3 20221Q+34%+$391.01M
AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC
A
Q1 2020Q4 20217Q+86%+$238.58M
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING IN
ADP
Q3 2017Q4 20199Q+63%+$112.13M
DOMINOS PIZZA INC
DPZ
Q2 2021Q4 20226Q-13%−$98.94M
MONDELEZ INTL INC
MDLZ
Q4 2015Q4 201812Q+5%+$93.2M

Every trade · entry date × return

Bubble = position size at entry
-25%0%+25%+50%+100%+200%CMG · +357%HLT · +303%GOOGL · +229%2015201720192021202320252026
PositiveNegativeStill open (marked to market)
Best closed pick
CMG +357%
Worst closed pick
NKE -19%
Total trades
46
Open trades
11