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Appaloosa LP
Backtest

Appaloosa LP

What you'd have made by mirroring Appaloosa LP's public 13F filings, starting with $10,000 on May 13, 2016 and rebalancing at every disclosure through May 31, 2026.

41 filings replayed201 of 255 CUSIPs mapped to tickers309 closed trades31 still open
BenchmarkMSCI EAFEDeveloped ex-US

Equity curve

$10,000 mirrored · vs EFA
$10k$20k$30k$40k$50k2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Mirror portfolio$10k in EFA
Mirror — final
$48.54K
EFA — final
$24.64K
Mirror return
+385.4%
Excess return vs EFA
+239.1%

Risk profile

Weekly mirror returns vs EFA · rf ≈ 4%
Sharpe
0.55
Max drawdown
-37.1%
Beta vs EFA
0.78
Information ratio
0.38
CAGR
+17.0%
Volatility (ann.)
23.6%
Sortino
0.53
α (Jensen, ann.)
+8.8%
Tracking error
20.0%
Upside capture
96%
Downside capture
73%
Window
10.0y

Drawdown

Underwater curve — distance below running peak
-30%-20%-10%0%-37.1%2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Largest drawdown: -37.1% from 2018-06-08 to 2020-03-20 · recovered 2020-08-28.

Style decomposition

44% · 525 weekly obs

Multivariate regression of weekly mirror excess return on five style factors built from the benchmark ETFs: SPY (market), IWM−SPY (size), QQQ−SPY (growth), EFA−SPY (international), AGG−SPY (bonds). The intercept is the “true alpha” after stripping these passive tilts. ✓ marks loadings whose |t-stat| ≥ 2 (≈ 95% confidence the loading is non-zero).

Market (β)
+0.86
Size tilt
+0.14
Growth tilt
+0.29
International tilt
+0.08
Bond tilt
-0.04
α (style-adjusted)
+2.8%
44%
α t-stat
0.50
Observations
525

Rolling 1y alpha

Trailing 52w mirror return − EFA return
-40%-20%0%+20%+40%avg +8.9%now +13.8%201820192020202120222023202420252026

Whether the headline alpha was earned recently or decades ago. Bands above the zero line are quarters where the mirror beat EFA on a trailing-year basis; bands below are quarters where it lost ground. A flat positive line = steady outperformance; a curve that crosses often = regime-dependent strategy.

Realized P&L · closed trades

Cumulative profit from positions opened and later sold
$0$5.0k$10k$15k$20k$25kCZR −$23kMTCH +$16kARKK +$4.6kEXE +$5872017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Realized P&L
+$2.64K
Closed trades
309
Win rate
43%
Avg return / closed
+12.7%

Biggest closed trades

IssuerEntryExitHeldReturnP&L
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INC NE
CZR
Q1 2023Q1 202612Q-64%$11.39B
MATCH GROUP INC NEW
MTCH
Q2 2023Q3 20231Q+39%+$7.85B
ARK ETF TR
ARKK
Q2 2023Q3 20231Q+11%+$2.27B
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP
EXE
Q2 2021Q2 202516Q+181%+$293.27M
T MOBILE US INC
TMUS
Q1 2018Q2 202217Q+116%+$283.88M
OCCIDENTAL PETE CORP
OXY
Q1 2021Q4 20227Q+179%+$251.11M
HCA HOLDINGS INC
HCA
Q2 2016Q3 20189Q+68%+$168.4M
ORACLE CORP
ORCL
Q1 2024Q4 20257Q+94%+$131.19M
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
MU
Q1 2017Q4 202223Q+169%+$120.63M
ALLSTATE CORP
ALL
Q2 2016Q3 20189Q+52%+$112.09M

Every trade · entry date × return

Bubble = position size at entry
-50%-25%0%+25%+50%+100%+200%+500%GOOG · +968%MU · +909%NVDA · +669%2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
PositiveNegativeStill open (marked to market)
Best closed pick
WES +357%
Worst closed pick
CZR -64%
Total trades
340
Open trades
31